The way out of the present Great Depression should have three axes:
1) a higher inflation target, around 4%. The European Central Bank targeted 1%, which is 1% removed from deflation, which is a trap with no exit.
2) government organized stimulus, New Deal style. It worked in the 1930s, in the USA and Germany.
3) national banks investing in the real economy (an old European trick now used by China and India)
Let's notice that Japan would be in depression, if not for massive government spending. Now, of course Japan has a total debt of 200% of GDP, nearly twice the one of Greece.
The American plutocrats' obsession about Greece not be ready for the euro is neither here nor there.
The drachma was converted at the wrong rate.
Moreover, the present crisis is made to bring the euro down to parity with the dollar quickly. Europe is punishing China and the USA for atrocious behavior at the Copenhagen climate conference. The euro is still more than 20% overvalued right now (mid May 2010).
American economists may have to enjoy the future double dip, if they do not mind USA plutocracy more than they do the European Union.
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Monday, May 10, 2010
American Plutocrats No Pasaran Mañana.
Paul Krugman, playing half clueless, bemoans that the Euro did not head back up in the stratosphere, where it can't breathe: "Yes, I know — the point is not to lift the euro. Still, the exchange rate is a quick measure of the impact on eurozone confidence, which bounced with the policy announcement but doesn’t seem to be staying up …"
OK, let's repeat slowly, so Krugman can learn the half of the lesson he did not quite digest yet:
To relaunch growth in Europe, the Euro, and its poodle, the Pound, have to come down big time. So rescue all you want, but go down. Go down at a more sedate pace, but go down. Down is a long way down.
The Euro was established by fixing parity against the very long term value of the French Franc. More recently, under the EMu and the Ecu, the long term average was a bit higher, at 1.07.
In any case, the support of the European Union for the economy of the USA is over: time to care about number one, namely Europe. The modern version of Smoot Hawley bill, Obama's ill conceived plan to double USA exports, will not pass. No pasaran.
Smoot-Hawley, passed in July 1930, boosted tariffs by 50%, and caused the Great Depression of the 1930s. To lift the Euro by 60% belongs to the same sort of ilk. Fortunately this time Europe is unified and democratic, and, while the somewhat confused Merkel went to find solace with her Russian friends, Sarkozy and company did what needed to be done (OK, they may have started the whole thing as a device to lower the Euro, agreed, so they were well placed to stop what they started...)
Notice that, last time this battle cry was offered, by "La Pasionara" during the attack against the Spanish republic by the fascist forces of Italy and Germany, with a rebel army from spanish Morocco headed by traitor general Franco,they passed nevertheless. And stayed for several decades.
But they passed, because they flew overhead, fueled by Texas oil (it was one of the rare things that made Adolf Hitler laugh). The Spanish Navy had blockaded Africa, where the fascist rebel force was, so Hitler's Luftwaffe organized an aerial bridge into Spain. That is also what we are talking about when we defend the Euro.
Nowadays, though, the risk has come down. There is less oil in Texas, and we know where the Gulf oil goes, and the US Army is searching for oil in all the wrong places...
Those who bathe in crude shall drown in it too.
PA
OK, let's repeat slowly, so Krugman can learn the half of the lesson he did not quite digest yet:
To relaunch growth in Europe, the Euro, and its poodle, the Pound, have to come down big time. So rescue all you want, but go down. Go down at a more sedate pace, but go down. Down is a long way down.
The Euro was established by fixing parity against the very long term value of the French Franc. More recently, under the EMu and the Ecu, the long term average was a bit higher, at 1.07.
In any case, the support of the European Union for the economy of the USA is over: time to care about number one, namely Europe. The modern version of Smoot Hawley bill, Obama's ill conceived plan to double USA exports, will not pass. No pasaran.
Smoot-Hawley, passed in July 1930, boosted tariffs by 50%, and caused the Great Depression of the 1930s. To lift the Euro by 60% belongs to the same sort of ilk. Fortunately this time Europe is unified and democratic, and, while the somewhat confused Merkel went to find solace with her Russian friends, Sarkozy and company did what needed to be done (OK, they may have started the whole thing as a device to lower the Euro, agreed, so they were well placed to stop what they started...)
Notice that, last time this battle cry was offered, by "La Pasionara" during the attack against the Spanish republic by the fascist forces of Italy and Germany, with a rebel army from spanish Morocco headed by traitor general Franco,they passed nevertheless. And stayed for several decades.
But they passed, because they flew overhead, fueled by Texas oil (it was one of the rare things that made Adolf Hitler laugh). The Spanish Navy had blockaded Africa, where the fascist rebel force was, so Hitler's Luftwaffe organized an aerial bridge into Spain. That is also what we are talking about when we defend the Euro.
Nowadays, though, the risk has come down. There is less oil in Texas, and we know where the Gulf oil goes, and the US Army is searching for oil in all the wrong places...
Those who bathe in crude shall drown in it too.
PA
Monday, May 3, 2010
Fusion-Fission Solution
Oil and the like can be extracted at increasingly unbearable cost (same holds for coal and sand oil, shale oil, etc...). It's not just a question of CO2, but of exhausted technology. Something similar happened to the Romans: they called it: "the world is getting old".
A program to build Fusion-Fission thermonuclear power plants program should be started in a hurry. Besides enormous clean energy production, it would allow to get rid of nuclear waste, all over the world, and produce plenty of electricity to run an electrical economy (besides renewable energies).
All indicates that, differently from PURE thermonuclear fusion plants, the technology exists already, it's just a matter of putting together the details. Existing thermonuclear reactor (such as the JET, Joint European Torus) can produce plenty of fast neutrons to split, among other things, conventional, not very radioactive U 238. Future reactors such as ITER aim at producing ten times as much energy thermonuclearly as is put in. But the walls will take a beating.
In a fusion-fission reactor, the walls are made of a fissionable materials (U238 split under fast neutrons, as produced by thermonuclear fusion; enriched in U235 uranium splits under slow neutrons). So the walls get destroyed, made progressively less radioactive (I simplify), but that produces energy. This way all nuclear waste can be burned.
The reason why fusion-fission has not been pushed so far is that Beyond Pain (BP) companies such as BP have zero interest to see it appear.
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
A program to build Fusion-Fission thermonuclear power plants program should be started in a hurry. Besides enormous clean energy production, it would allow to get rid of nuclear waste, all over the world, and produce plenty of electricity to run an electrical economy (besides renewable energies).
All indicates that, differently from PURE thermonuclear fusion plants, the technology exists already, it's just a matter of putting together the details. Existing thermonuclear reactor (such as the JET, Joint European Torus) can produce plenty of fast neutrons to split, among other things, conventional, not very radioactive U 238. Future reactors such as ITER aim at producing ten times as much energy thermonuclearly as is put in. But the walls will take a beating.
In a fusion-fission reactor, the walls are made of a fissionable materials (U238 split under fast neutrons, as produced by thermonuclear fusion; enriched in U235 uranium splits under slow neutrons). So the walls get destroyed, made progressively less radioactive (I simplify), but that produces energy. This way all nuclear waste can be burned.
The reason why fusion-fission has not been pushed so far is that Beyond Pain (BP) companies such as BP have zero interest to see it appear.
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
WHY BIG BANKERS ARE OUTLAWS.
1) We are living in a state of law. Supposedly.
2) That state is democracy, the rule of the demos, the people.
3) Political leaders have recently given PRIVATE unelected individuals, the bankers, the means, and the right to create money, the money everybody uses, through debt, starting from PUBLIC funds.
3) Contradicts the union of 1) and 2).
Thus, the present system incite, big, money creating BANKERS TO BECOME GANGSTERS, and OUTLAWS.
It is as simple as that. Thus one needs to get rid of the private fractional reserve PUBLICLY funded money creating system.
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
2) That state is democracy, the rule of the demos, the people.
3) Political leaders have recently given PRIVATE unelected individuals, the bankers, the means, and the right to create money, the money everybody uses, through debt, starting from PUBLIC funds.
3) Contradicts the union of 1) and 2).
Thus, the present system incite, big, money creating BANKERS TO BECOME GANGSTERS, and OUTLAWS.
It is as simple as that. Thus one needs to get rid of the private fractional reserve PUBLICLY funded money creating system.
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Punish China For The Right Reasons.
Paul Krugman has been the instigator of what is now a vast chorus to view the underevaluation of the Chinese currency as a serious problem. I do agree, sort of, but I extend the critique to the US dollar: it, too is undervalued.
So, according to Paul, China has got to be punished, because it exports its savings, and we are so incompetent, we do not know what to do with them, because we are not expansionary enough... As it is, this reminds me a bit of punishing people, because they saved too much, and were too industrious, thus owning too much, in part thanks of an alleged conspiracy of them... Hmmm... Was not that exactly the Nazis' main drift against a particular minority?
Being also as bad as they come, I also want to punish the Chinese, but only to encourage them to become better planetary citizens. I do think that the technological and economic, not to say social stagnation of the West is the West's problem, not China, and China ought not to be punished for it. Instead the West ought to be punished for not striving to stay on top of the existing hierarchy, and on top of the planetary problems we have.
Not to preserve the existing hierarchy will lead to instability, hence war. Same with not solving the drastic ecological problems (acidification, water, climate change, population growth).
If China manipulates its currency, it has to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. First. Also the duties ought to correspond to the minimum of the proven depreciation; if the renminbi is undervalued by 10% minimum, then impose 10% minimum duties, etc.
China working hard and saving is a good thing. We ought to emulate it. What we ought to not emulate, and encourage China to get out of, is its carbon solution. Reigning in our plutocrats, in bed with the Chinese dictatorship, is our problem, not China's. Just as the plutocrats out-maneuvered the Nazis, in the end, they will out-maneuver China at the first occasion. They out-maneuvered us on health care, and with the on-going existence of their vampiric financial scheme. We do not want them to out-maneuver us again, using China as a trampoline.
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
So, according to Paul, China has got to be punished, because it exports its savings, and we are so incompetent, we do not know what to do with them, because we are not expansionary enough... As it is, this reminds me a bit of punishing people, because they saved too much, and were too industrious, thus owning too much, in part thanks of an alleged conspiracy of them... Hmmm... Was not that exactly the Nazis' main drift against a particular minority?
Being also as bad as they come, I also want to punish the Chinese, but only to encourage them to become better planetary citizens. I do think that the technological and economic, not to say social stagnation of the West is the West's problem, not China, and China ought not to be punished for it. Instead the West ought to be punished for not striving to stay on top of the existing hierarchy, and on top of the planetary problems we have.
Not to preserve the existing hierarchy will lead to instability, hence war. Same with not solving the drastic ecological problems (acidification, water, climate change, population growth).
If China manipulates its currency, it has to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. First. Also the duties ought to correspond to the minimum of the proven depreciation; if the renminbi is undervalued by 10% minimum, then impose 10% minimum duties, etc.
China working hard and saving is a good thing. We ought to emulate it. What we ought to not emulate, and encourage China to get out of, is its carbon solution. Reigning in our plutocrats, in bed with the Chinese dictatorship, is our problem, not China's. Just as the plutocrats out-maneuvered the Nazis, in the end, they will out-maneuver China at the first occasion. They out-maneuvered us on health care, and with the on-going existence of their vampiric financial scheme. We do not want them to out-maneuver us again, using China as a trampoline.
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
Monday, March 15, 2010
The Main Points About The Regalian Banking System We Have.
The first key point about finance as it exists is that private, unsupervised, unelected financial establishments are able to create most of the money in use in the realm. It is a major misleading omission to behave as if this was compatible with democracy (see what Rothschild thought about it below).
The second key point is that they are allowed to create it through debt, in other words, serfdom.
The third key point is that modern financial creators are allowed to give said money they created to whoever, and whatever they please. "Whoever" they call that "talent", and "whatever" is the derivative universe, which, as its name indicates, is not the real universe. The derivative universe is just a way to claim imaginary revenue, imaginary profits, and, thus, all too real bonuses, and manipulative powers onto the world of economics, politics, and sociology.
The fourth key point is that they avoid supervision, election, and, in general the entire democratic process; this is called the 'independence" of the Federal Reserve bank. "independence" from democracy, that is.
All these powers of modern finance are regalian.
As Rothschild said: "I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ...The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply."
But kings, especially non elected ones, become arrogant, because they want to celebrate their power. Thus now they have forced the people to humiliate itself by forking over all its economies, and then by making it plain that they could get away with anything. Hence the criminality, and blatant influence peddling.
None of this has to be. making banks into the realm's money creator is an extraordinary privilege that was not accorded during most of civilization, for the reason that, as Rothschild said, it makes the king into a puppet. Thus Obama is a puppet, says Rothschild.
One could revert to the earlier system used in feudal times and times before that: banks lend what has been deposited with them, and not more. Governments would then create money as needed. To insure that enough money would be created for valid projects and investments, banking officials would be rewarded reasonably according, and proportionally to the long term profitability of said projects and investments. In other words, the more leveraged a bank is, the more governmentalized it ought to be.
The only banks who are truly private are those using strictly no leverage. Others ought to be viewed as the government institutions they truly are, meaning that the government is not what conventional wisdom assumed it to be.
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
The second key point is that they are allowed to create it through debt, in other words, serfdom.
The third key point is that modern financial creators are allowed to give said money they created to whoever, and whatever they please. "Whoever" they call that "talent", and "whatever" is the derivative universe, which, as its name indicates, is not the real universe. The derivative universe is just a way to claim imaginary revenue, imaginary profits, and, thus, all too real bonuses, and manipulative powers onto the world of economics, politics, and sociology.
The fourth key point is that they avoid supervision, election, and, in general the entire democratic process; this is called the 'independence" of the Federal Reserve bank. "independence" from democracy, that is.
All these powers of modern finance are regalian.
As Rothschild said: "I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ...The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply."
But kings, especially non elected ones, become arrogant, because they want to celebrate their power. Thus now they have forced the people to humiliate itself by forking over all its economies, and then by making it plain that they could get away with anything. Hence the criminality, and blatant influence peddling.
None of this has to be. making banks into the realm's money creator is an extraordinary privilege that was not accorded during most of civilization, for the reason that, as Rothschild said, it makes the king into a puppet. Thus Obama is a puppet, says Rothschild.
One could revert to the earlier system used in feudal times and times before that: banks lend what has been deposited with them, and not more. Governments would then create money as needed. To insure that enough money would be created for valid projects and investments, banking officials would be rewarded reasonably according, and proportionally to the long term profitability of said projects and investments. In other words, the more leveraged a bank is, the more governmentalized it ought to be.
The only banks who are truly private are those using strictly no leverage. Others ought to be viewed as the government institutions they truly are, meaning that the government is not what conventional wisdom assumed it to be.
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
The Really Unfair Chinese Economic Advantage
If currency intervention with the aim of undervaluing the Chinese currency can be proven, there are official avenues to make that official through the IMF. This ought to be the next step. Guilt has to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt before punishment can be envisioned.
The real problem with China is somewhere else: western plutocrats have used it as an avenue to avoid Western various regulations, especially about pollution. Thus an unfair trade practice and a world pollution (Chinese pollution strikes the USA). The way out is to install a carbon tax, as France is in the process of doing. Then it could go worldwide, and China will lose an enormous comparative advantage of the criminal type (coal Chinese pollution poisons the Arctic with condensing mercury vapor, for example).
Plutocrats used Nazism in a similar way, starting 90 years ago (yes plutocratic intervention and procreation of Nazism preceded its existence). In that case, American plutocrats, starting in the 1920s were able to turn around American anti-monopoly laws, and, later many other laws. Plutocracy fed fascism, and reciprocally. When fascism died, plutocracy thrived even more, and here we are…
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
The real problem with China is somewhere else: western plutocrats have used it as an avenue to avoid Western various regulations, especially about pollution. Thus an unfair trade practice and a world pollution (Chinese pollution strikes the USA). The way out is to install a carbon tax, as France is in the process of doing. Then it could go worldwide, and China will lose an enormous comparative advantage of the criminal type (coal Chinese pollution poisons the Arctic with condensing mercury vapor, for example).
Plutocrats used Nazism in a similar way, starting 90 years ago (yes plutocratic intervention and procreation of Nazism preceded its existence). In that case, American plutocrats, starting in the 1920s were able to turn around American anti-monopoly laws, and, later many other laws. Plutocracy fed fascism, and reciprocally. When fascism died, plutocracy thrived even more, and here we are…
PA
http://patriceayme.wordpress.com/
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